Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Clinton fights for her political life.

Hillary Clinton is now fighting for her political life. Since Super Tuesday the Obama campaign has continued to build momentum. Barack Obama easily defeated Clinton in the Wisconsin primary last night. He also won the Hawaii caucus decisively. In recent days Clinton has increasingly used negative campaigning. Referring to Obama she has said. "It's time that we move from good words to good works, from sound bites to sound solutions.

Mr Obama has defeated Clinton in ten successive contests since Super Tuesday two weeks ago. Most disconcerting for Clinton is the fact that many blue collar voters, females and the elderly -for long the mainstay of her campaign- have begun to drift towards Obama. The problem for Clinton is that Obama’s support is now well balanced amongst whites, blue-collar workers and the elderly as well as the youth. Obama is no longer over reliant on African Americans.

It is estimated that Obama has the support 1,335 delegates to Clinton’s 1,251.
Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a 14% lead over Hillary Clinton in a national presidential preference telephone survey conducted by Zogby International for Reuters.

The Ohio and Texas primaries will be held on 4 March, together with the smaller states of Vermont and Rhode Island.
Clinton will expect strong Hispanic support in Texas. She was a strong favourite to win Texas . However a CNN poll has shown both candidates are now neck and neck. Even in Texas support for Clinton appears to be ebbing away.
The war of words between both candidates can be expected to intensify. An increasingly desperate and shrill Clinton may drive more voters into the Obama camp. Can the legendary Clinton machine snatch victory from the jaws of defeat?

If Clinton loses Ohio and Texas she is effectively finished as a serious prospect for the nomination. If she wins one, the fight will in all probability go to the convention floor. Hillary and Bill will then endeavour to sway the super delegates by emphasizing that she is the more experienced candidate. If this transpires the ensuing bloodletting could tear the Democratic Party asunder. The issue of the Florida and Michigan delegates has yet to be resolved. Is it likely that only 48 states will choose the Democratic nominee? Clinton will fight furiously to ensure that delegates from Florida and Michigan can vote.
These delegates-if allowed to vote at convention- could exercise a major influence on the outcome.

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